Detection of Famine
Possibly throughout history, most certainly in the nineteenth and twentieth centuries, the term famine has been used loosely. Hungry seasons, annual periods of dearth afflicting societies just before harvest, have been called famines.
To add to the semantic confusion, there have been allegedly deliberate misapplications of the term by some governments in order to elicit aid when it was not warranted. Moreover, some governments have avoided using the term when it ought to have been used. The concept of famine has clearly been politicized. Nevertheless, one must admit that famines, unlike sudden physical catastrophes such as earthquakes and hurricanes, are not always easy to detect. Often unannounced by any violent event, famine can develop insidiously, remaining invisible for a protracted period to members of the privileged classes, especially if they are inured to the sight of poverty, endemic undernutrition, and disease. One can perhaps better comprehend the tendency for famine to escape notice by reflecting on the fact that during the Ethiopian famine of 1973-5 it was estimated that at any one time not more than 8 percent of that country’s population was starving to death. In a nation where as many as 20 million people are perpetually hungry, the threshold at which suffering becomes perceived as an emergency stands relatively high.For this reason, historical sources bearing on the study of famine, whether official, academic, or popular, must be read with caution. A rigorous historical detection of famine should include the following:
1. evidence of a dramatic increase in mortality;
2. evidence that such an increase occurred in several adjacent communities at once;
3. consideration of the possibility that lethal disease unrelated to general starvation bears responsibility for increased mortality;
4. data showing a correlation between mortality curves and the price of food;
5. information indicating disproportional mortality among the economically marginal;
6. evidence of a depression in live births; and
7. statements contained in contemporary accounts referring to dearth, misery, or death owing to want.
Robert Dirks